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☆ These 5 recession indicators have escaped the danger zone after flashing economic red flags
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-12 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Five recession indicators that were flashing a warning sign about the economy have since retreated. AdvertisementVarious economic indicators that suggested a recession was imminent not too long ago have since retreated, according to Ned Davis Research. That means investors probably don't have to worry about an economic recession occurring any time soon. AdvertisementThese are the five recession indicators that are no longer flashing red as the resilient US economy continues to power forward. In February, the LEI ticked up 0.1% and the Conference Board no longer expects a recession," Kalish said.

Persons: Ned Davis, Joseph Kalish, Kalish, Board's LEI, LEI Organizations: Ned Davis Research, NDR, Gross, GDI, Conference Board

☆ The economy is sending mixed signals about a recession, and that's made the timing of the next rate cut less meaningful
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-11 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The economy is sending mixed signals about a potential recession in the near future, according to Ned Davis Research. The conflicting data suggests the Fed should de-emphasize when it will cut interest rates. AdvertisementThe US economy is sending mixed signals about when the next recession will arrive. Other economic indicators that measure manufacturing activity have been improving lately and argue for a long runway of economic growth ahead. That advice appears especially poignant following the release of the hotter-than-expected March CPI report, which plunged the probability of the first Fed interest rate cut happening in June from 50% to about 20% and pushed out the likelihood of a rate cut to July.

Persons: Ned Davis, Joseph Kalish, Kalish, Powell Organizations: Ned Davis Research, NDR, Federal Reserve Locations: Europe

☆ Millennial women are taking over the economy
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-17 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Millennial women are having an outsized impact on the global economy, according to Ned Davis Research. "The rise in millennial female participation should have positive implications for the economy and equities in the long-term," NDR said. "The unemployment rate tends to be lower among people with higher education, which helps explain the greater take-up of women in the workforce. Younger women are more likely to have higher education and thus, be employed productively." Ned Davis Research"The premise is that when the economy has a large proportion of maturing population, workers are more productive, and incomes are higher," Grindal said.

Persons: Ned Davis, Alejandra Grindal, —, Grindal, millennials Organizations: Ned Davis Research, NDR Locations: Australia, Japan, Germany, Italy, South Korea

☆ History shows the best trade has usually been to buy the stock getting kicked out of the Dow Industrials
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-26 | by ( Samantha Subin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

If history is any guide, Walgreens Boots Alliance may fare better after getting tossed from the Dow Jones Industrial Average . In fact, data shows that betting on a stock that's leaving the Dow is often a better trade for investors than buying shares of a stock that's entering the 127-year-old average. What history shows Alcoa was the best-performing stock among the last 10 outgoing Dow members. For example, Honeywell International surged more than 40% one year after joining the Dow, while UnitedHealth rallied nearly 28%. General Electric , the last of the original 12 Dow stocks, plunged about 58% one year after leaving the average in 2018.

Persons: bode, Ned Davis, Goldman Sachs, —, Amgen —, UnitedHealth, DuPont de Nemours, Fred Imbert Organizations: Walgreens Boots, Dow Jones, Walgreens, Dow, General Electric, WBA, CNBC Pro, Ned Davis Research, NDR, Alcoa, HP, Bank of America, Nike, Visa, RTX Corporation, Exxon Mobil, Pfizer, Apple, Honeywell International, DuPont de Locations: U.S

☆ The odds of a global recession keep going down
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-07 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Ned Davis Research said economic indicators suggest the odds of a global downturn are diminishing. "The global economic lull we saw in the second half of 2023 appears to be abating." In a note published Tuesday, they highlighted that economic indicators across manufacturing, supply chains, and equities suggest the odds of a global recession have come down. On a historical basis, it's still below the long-term average of 53.2, but the global composite PMI has a recession threshold of 47.8. "This puts our breadth measure closer to pre-pandemic levels, when global expansions typically saw services breadth at 85% or higher."

Persons: Ned Davis, —, Alejandra Grindal, Patrick Ayers, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Ned Davis Research, Service, PMI, NDR Locations: China, India, East, Japan, Canada

☆ The stock market has cooled off to start 2024, but it's still checking most of the bull market boxes
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-13 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

The small-cap Russell 2000 has dropped close to 4% against a fractional gain in the S & P 500 year to date. In broad terms, the S & P 500 could retreat to 4600 or so – about 4% down from here – and still be in a routine technical check-back to its latest launch point in early December. Todd Sohn of Strategas notes that the Invesco S & P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) saw inflows go vertical last year to $13.5 billion, 30% above its prior 12-month record. Betting on 'peacetime' Fed cuts Right or wrong, the market debate right now can never get far before turning into a Fed-policy-path discussion. Last week's CPI and PPI data added to the market's collective conviction that inflation's downside momentum is strong, opening the way for "peacetime" Fed rate cuts.

Persons: that's, Russell, Ned Davis, Tim Hayes, Tony Pasquariello, Goldman Sachs, Henry McVey, KKR's, McVey, Morgan Stanley, Todd Sohn, Strategas, they're, Jerome Powell Organizations: Ned Davis Research, Goldman, Nasdaq, Apple, CPI, PPI Locations: U.S

☆ The decline in China's US Treasury holdings isn't as big as it seems
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-26 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The ongoing decline in China's US bond holdings is not as big as it seems, according to Ned Davis Research. "Although China's holdings of US debt are down, after some adjustments, it's a lot less than the headline implies," NDR said. "The rationale for using these conduits is that when added to China's Treasury holdings, they closely track China's foreign exchange reserves." "Although China's holdings of US debt are down, after some adjustments, it's a lot less than the headline implies," Kalish said. AdvertisementOne person who's not concerned about China reducing its Treasury holdings is US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.

Persons: Ned Davis, —, Joseph Kalish, Kalish, who's, Janet Yellen, Xi Organizations: Ned Davis Research, NDR, Service, US, Treasury Locations: China, Beijing, Belgium, Luxembourg, San Francisco

☆ BMW says it is looking into Morocco labour, environment issues after newspaper report
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The headquarters of German luxury carmaker BMW is seen in Munich, Germany, August 5, 2020. BMW has contacted local supplier Managem with a range of queries and requested additional information, a spokesperson for the company told Reuters. By far the largest proportion of the world's cobalt deposits are located in the Congo, where child labour still occurs, particularly in small mines. BMW no longer sources cobalt from Congo, said the BMW spokesperson. Reporting by Christina Amann, writing by Vera Eckert, Editing by Hugh LawsonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Michael Dalder, Managem, Christina Amann, Vera Eckert, Hugh Lawson Organizations: BMW, REUTERS, Bayerische Motoren, FRANKFURT, Reuters, Managem, Daily, Sueddeutsche Zeitung, NDR, WDR, Thomson Locations: Munich, Germany, Moroccan, Morocco, Congo, Australia

☆ Wall Street will seek confirmation the Fed is done in next week's big inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-10 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Economists polled by FactSet expect U.S. inflation to have risen just 0.1% last month and 3.3% from the year-ago period. Cracks in consumer data Investors will also watch for the October retail sales data for insight into the consumer, who has thus far proven resilient even in the face of higher interest rates and inflation. Investors will also be watching for the October producer price index (PPI) data on Wednesday, as well as housing data on Friday. Monday Nov. 13 Earnings: Tyson Foods Tuesday Nov. 14 8:30 a.m. CPI (October) 8:30 a.m. Hourly Earnings final (October) 8:30 a.m. Average Workweek final (October) Earnings: Home Depot , Charles Schwab Wednesday Nov. 15 8:30 a.m.

Persons: Amy Magnotta, It's, There's, Gregory Daco, he'll, Ned Davis Research's, Joe Kalish, NDR's Kalish, Jeff Klingelhofer, Magnotta, Tyson, Charles Schwab, John Williams Organizations: Federal, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Ategenos, FactSet, Thornburg Investment Management, Walmart, CPI, PPI, Retail, Palo Alto Networks, Price, Philadelphia Fed, Manufacturing, . New York Federal Reserve, . Kansas City Fed Manufacturing, Ross Stores, Body, Housing Locations: . New, NAHB, . Kansas, Bath

☆ The stock market is following a rare pattern that could signal double-digit gains next year
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-02 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The stock market is following a rare pattern that could signal big gains next year, NDR said. The S&P 500 rallied for five months straight this year, followed by three consecutive months of losses. A five-month winning streak earlier this year was immediately followed by a three-month selloff from August through October. That's an unusual pattern in the history of the market, one that has only been observe four times since 1926. AdvertisementAdvertisement"Over the past 50 years, the S&P 500 was up every time from one to 12 months later," the strategists said.

Persons: —, Ned Davis, That's, Tom Lee Organizations: NDR, Service, Ned Davis Research, Treasury

☆ 'Sesame Street' will be revamped as Max streaming deal is set to expire
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-30 | by ( Laya Neelakandan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Sesame Street characters Bert and Ernie during the presentation of the NDR and Deutsche Post commemorative stamp of 'Sesamstrasse' on March 2, 2020 in Hamburg, Germany. "Sesame Street" will soon have a new format as it turns the page on season 55, ending the children's show's magazine-style structure, Sesame Workshop executives told The Hollywood Reporter. The revamped "Sesame Street" will debut in 2025. Last year, Max yanked about 200 older episodes of "Sesame Street" as the streaming service refined content for its target audience, which isn't children. The show's current deal with Max ends after season 55, which is set to begin about a year from now.

Persons: Bert, Ernie, Elmo, Big Bird, HBO Max, Max, Max yanked, Steve Youngwood, Youngwood, Max didn't Organizations: NDR, Deutsche, Sesame, Hollywood, Warner Bros, HBO, Warner Locations: Hamburg, Germany

☆ US companies aren't feeling great about the economy - but one group is extra pessimistic
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-27 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Small business owners and CFOs both reported feeling downbeat about the US economy in recent surveys. CFOs are far more optimistic about the prospects for their own companies relative to the wider economy. A historically low number of small business owners said it's a good time to expand operations. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementAdvertisementSmall business owners are pessimistic about the state of the US economy.

Persons: it's, —, Ned Davis, CFOs Organizations: Service, Conference Board, Ned Davis Research Small, NDR, Bloomberg, Fed

☆ CHART OF THE DAY: Industrial output shows high interest rates aren't hurting the economy yet
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-19 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Global central bank interest rates have tripled to its highest level since 2000. "We don't see sufficient evidence that the global economy is headed for severe recession," Ned Davis Research said. This is unusual considering that in the past, such sharp moves higher in global interest rates has coincided with a considerable decline in economic activity. While the economy might escape the damage of higher interest rates, asset prices are "not off the hook," the note said. That's because of shrinking central bank balance sheets, which have historically been associated with weaker equity performance.

Persons: Ned Davis, — Organizations: Ned Davis Research, Service, NDR Locations: China

☆ Save like a boomer: Younger generations have a chance to make high interest rates work for them
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-17 | by ( Cork Gaines | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Interest rates on traditionally "safer" investments like Treasury bonds are high. Economist Thomas Hogan of the American Institute for Economic Research recently pointed out this upside to the interest rates and how it is helping Americans. "Now, interest rates on US Treasury bonds are at the highest in more than a decade, giving savers a safe, stable place to store their money." If long-term interest rates remain elevated because of higher term premiums, there may be less need to raise the fed funds rate. However, to the extent that strength in the economy is behind the increase in long-term interest rates, the FOMC may need to do more."

Persons: —, Thomas Hogan, Hogan, Jerome Powell, Kevin Dietsch, Tim Hayes, Lorie Logan, Logan Organizations: Service, Treasury, American Institute for Economic Research, Federal, NDR, U.S, Supreme, Dallas Locations: Israel

☆ Here's why it's so dangerous for Wall Street to bet against the American consumer
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-06 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

"Betting against the American consumer is a dangerous proposition," Ned Davis Research said. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe American consumer has defied expectations over the past year as spending remains resilient, but Wall Street continues to anticipate a recession. The dynamic highlights why it's dangerous to bet against the American consumer, according to a Friday note from Ned Davis Research. YChartsMeanwhile, rising interest rates only impacts new loans or refinancings, and just over 75% of mortgage holders have an interest rate below 5%. Betting against the American consumer is a dangerous proposition," NDR concluded.

Persons: Ned Davis, —, Bank of America's Savita Subramanian Organizations: Ned Davis Research, Service, Bank of America's, NDR

☆ Here's why the stock market could be primed for a year-end rally
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-28 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The stock market has slumped in August and September, but Ned Davis Research says there is reason for optimism. As of Wednesday's close, the S&P 500 has shed 5% in September, while the Dow Jones Industrial and the Nasdaq have tumbled 3% and 6%, respectively. "[S]entiment is approaching extremely pessimistic levels, suggesting that a year-end rally is not off the table," NDR said. In any case, the pessimistic data comes as the NDR S&P 500 Cycle Composite is about to finish its weak seasonal stretch. And from both a technical and sentiment standpoint, the "recent weakness could be setting the stage for a year-end rally."

Persons: Ned Davis, —, there's Organizations: Ned Davis Research, Service, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, NDR

☆ Q+A What is known about the Nord Stream gas pipeline explosions
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-26 | by ( Nerijus Adomaitis | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

This is what we know so far:WHAT ARE NORD STREAM PIPELINES? The multibillion-dollar infrastructure project was built by Russia's Gazprom (GAZP.MM) in two stages - Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2. Gazprom owns 51% of Nord Stream 1, while Germany's E.ON (EONGn.DE) and Wintershall Dea (WINT.UL) have 15.5% each, while French Engie (ENGIE.PA) and Dutch Gasunie (GSUNI.UL) hold 9% each in Nord Stream 1. Nord Stream 2, fully owned by Gazprom and operated by Nord Stream 2 AG, was completed in September 2021 at a cost of $11 billion, but was never put into operation because Germany had cancelled Nord Stream 2's certification days before Russia's invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022. The Nord Stream pipelines have been a flashpoint in an energy dispute between Europe and Moscow since Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Persons: Pipes, Fabian Bimmer, Wintershall, OMV, Peter Frank, Die, Seymour Hersh, Mats Ljungqvist, Der Spiegel, Der Siegel, BfV, Nerijus Adomaitis, Christoph Steitz, Nina Chestney, Ros Russell Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Gazprom, Nord, E.ON, Shell, . Security, WHO, Washington Post, Die Welt, . Security Council, Reuters, Street, ZDF, Kyiv, CIA, NDR, WDR, German Federal Intelligence Service, Thomson Locations: Baltic, Mukran, Germany, Rights OSLO, Russia, Swedish, Bornholm, Sweden, Denmark, Nord, Ukraine, Uniper, Washington, NATO, Moscow, Kaliningrad, Russian, Britain ., U.S, Norway, China, Brazil, Rostock, Wiek, Rugen, Danish, Christianso, Kolobrzeg, Poland, Europe, United States, Oslo, Frankfurt

☆ Here's what Wall Street expects from Jerome Powell at Jackson Hole
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-23 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Fed chief Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak Friday at Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Markets will be hanging on his every word, and Wall Street expects him to focus on inflation and interest rates. Get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in business, from Wall Street to Silicon Valley — delivered daily. "We are not expecting to get a strong monetary policy signal out of Jackson Hole," Goldman Sachs strategists wrote in a note Friday. "Typically, markets have been in positive territory the week following Jackson Hole."

Persons: Jerome Powell, Jackson, Powell, goad Powell, CME's, Goldman Sachs, Quincy Krosby, Tom Lee, Ned Davis Organizations: Wall Street, Service, Wall, LPL Financial, Fed, NDR Locations: , Wyoming, Wall, Silicon, dovish, Russia, Ukraine, China

☆ A key signal suggests job growth could plummet in coming months amid labor strikes and bad weather
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-11 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

A key signal suggests monthly job growth could plummet in the coming months, according to Ned Davis Research. The research firm highlighted that a slow-down in temporary hiring services is the canary in the coal mine. The investment research firm highlighted a key leading indicator that is warning of a potential slowdown in hiring, and that's the hiring activities of temporary hiring services. And the two most recent job reports also came in below economist estimates, ending a more than year-long streak of better-than-expected job growth. Other factors that could limit future job growth includes tighter lending standards and a potential strike by the UAW and other unions.

Persons: Ned Davis, Joseph Kalish, Kalish Organizations: Ned Davis Research, NDR, UAW, Employers

☆ The Fed may be done hiking rates but there's another policy move that still poses a big risk to stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-10 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Fed may be nearing the end of its rate hikes but its balance sheet reduction plans still pose a big risk to stocks. The Fed has reduced its balance sheet by $900 billion over the past year and is showing no signs of stopping. Continued draining of liquidity presents a risk for equities," Ned Davis Research said in a Thursday note. The Fed has been reducing its balance sheet by about $80 billion per month, and stocks tend to perform well when the exact opposite happens, according to NDR. And its balance sheet reduction policy can have a big impact not only on the stock market, but also the economy.

Persons: Ned Davis, Joseph Kalish, Kalish Organizations: Fed, Ned Davis Research, Service, NDR Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ Here's why the restart of student loan payments won't end up dragging down the economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-09 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The upcoming restart of student loan payments shouldn't drag down the economy, according to Ned Davis Research. About 46 million holders of $1.77 trillion in student loan debt are expected to resume payments in October for the first time since March 2020. Don't expect the upcoming restart of student loan payments to drag down the US economy, according to Ned Davis Research. Student loan payments are expected to restart in October for the first time since the start of the pandemic in March 2020. And excess consumer savings could more than cover the upcoming resumption of student loan payments, according to NDR.

Persons: Ned Davis, Dimitrova Organizations: Ned Davis Research, NDR, Federal Reserve, Dimitrova

☆ Live updates: Russia's war in Ukraine, upcoming NATO Summit in Vilnius
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-10 | by ( Helen Regan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

Images from amateur Russian trainspotting websites appear to show Putin's train. The train is painted to look like an ordinary Russian Railways train. Among the parts of the train detailed is car number 021-78630, with a gym and spa for Putin, according to the Dossier Center. The Dossier Center is backed by Mikhail Khodorkovsky, an exiled former Russian oil tycoon turned Kremlin critic. A glossy brochure made by Zircon itself shows a luxurious gym and spa on wheels designed for Putin, the Dossier Center says.

Persons: Vladimir Putin’s, ”, “, Putin, Yevgeny Prigozhin’s, Mikhail Khodorkovsky, Zircon Organizations: Russian Railways, CNN, Transportation Administration, Kremlin, Süddeutsche Zeitung, NDR, WDR, Service Locations: Russian, Ukraine, Mykolaiv, Moscow, London

A glossy brochure made by Zircon itself shows a luxurious gym and spa on wheels designed for Putin, the Dossier Center says. The room itself, documents from the Dossier Center suggest, is outfitted to help prevent the use of listening devices. The train is painted to look like an ordinary Russian Railways train. “There is a ghost train on the railways of our country,” one trainspotter wrote alongside an image of what appears to be Putin’s train he posted on rutrain.com. It is through the image of those domes that we know that Putin’s train carries the ordinary external markings of a Russian train.

Persons: Vladimir Putin’s, ”, “, Putin, Yevgeny Prigozhin’s, Mikhail Khodorkovsky, Zircon, –, Dmitry Pegov, Oleg Klimentiev, ” Pegov, Oleg Ateistovich, ” CNN’s, Gleb Karakulov, Karakulov, ” Karakulov, trainspotter, trainspotters, Abbas Gallyamov, ” Gallyamov, Putin's, Gallyamov, Wagner, It’s Organizations: CNN, Transportation Administration, Kremlin, Süddeutsche Zeitung, NDR, WDR, Service, Russian Railways, “, Dossier, Zircon Service, Federal Security Service, FSO Locations: Ukraine, Mykolaiv, Moscow, London, Russian, Russia, Valdai, St . Petersburg, Kerch, Crimea, Israel

☆ The Fed is the only thing standing in the way of a sustained bull market in stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-29 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The current bull market in stocks looks sustainable as long as the Federal Reserve doesn't mess things up. The firm highlighted that the S&P 500's 25% rally from its mid-October low has all the hallmarks of a long-term secular bull market rather than a short-term cyclical bull market. That fact favors the idea that the current bull market in stocks is more secular in nature than cyclical, according to the note. As a result, the Fed represents the biggest risk to the stock market, which is the case whether the Fed cuts or continues to raise interest rates. With interest rates sitting at more than 5%, all eyes will be on the Fed's next interest rate decision at its July FOMC meeting.

Persons: Ned Davis, —, it's, Alan Greenspan, Stocks, Jerome Powell, Burns, Miller Organizations: Federal, Ned Davis Research, NDR, Service, Federal Reserve, Fed, Term Capital Management

☆ Dividend payers underperformed in the first half. Here’s why they could make a comeback
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-28 | by ( Darla Mercado | Cfp | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Dividend payers are on track for their worst half against stocks that don't pay dividends since 2009, Ed Clissold, the firm's chief U.S. strategist, wrote in a June 22 report. "Our index of S & P 500 Dividend Payers underperformed Non-Payers by 13.7% year to date," he said. Meanwhile, the ProShares S & P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF (NOBL) is up 3% in 2023. SPYD .SPX YTD line SPDR Portfolio S & P 500 High Dividend ETF versus the S & P 500 in 2023 One of the reasons behind dividend stocks' underperformance is the fact that they have low betas. For starters, dividend payers tend to outperform during the second year of the Federal Reserve's tightening cycles, NDR found.

Persons: Ned Davis, Ed Clissold, Clissold, Jerome Powell, Michael Bloom Organizations: Ned Davis Research, underperformed, Nasdaq

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